In recent years, the sense of security in the Baltic States has become more and more marked by the aggressive political and military actions of the Russian Federation.
This process has been visible since 2008 (the Georgian-Ossetian war) and its intensification took place after the outbreak of the conflict in eastern Ukraine in 2014 – or, plainly speaking – the war in Donbas Area. More frequent reports of Russian intelligence activities in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, border provocations (eg. airspace violations), cyber attacks, and finally propaganda activities on the very edge of the information war (or perhaps on the other side?) intensified the perceptible threat level.
On top of that, specialists are sure “who has the knife and who is the lamb”. Professional analysis of Western think tanks – such as Rand Corporation – concerning the huge disparities between the military capabilities of the Baltic States and the Russian Federation and the possibility of Russian occupation of most of the territories of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia within 60 hours since the outbreak of war do not leave illusions about the outcome of a potential clash (or at least its initial phase). Equally professional made visions of the future conflict, even if being a political fiction – like the BBC’s quasi-documentary – warm up the atmosphere.
Continue reading A short story about the Lithuanian defence system
The pending process of transformation of global order, generates changes in international security environment. This in turn produce modifications of factors – internal and external – that may affect the national security. It will not be a truism to say that in recent times two processes have affected the Polish security system and caused the necessity of its re-evaluation – the consequences of war in Syria and Iraq and the conflict in eastern Ukraine.
The Syrian War, and earlier, other revolutions within the Arab Spring, caused the migration crisis that whole Europe is facing today. The burden of this problem lies unevenly on all EU Member States: southern countries who first encounter the refugees from Maghreb (Italy, Greece and Malta), border states of the Schengen area (f. e. Slovenia, Hungary, Slovakia, Poland), transit countries and the countries which are migrants destinations (f. e. Austria, Germany, France, Benelux, Sweden, United Kingdom). The threat of the migration crisis and migrants is often used as a political argument by the national parties (populist) in Western Europe and frequently causes an increased support for the radical nationalist movements. In result it may case huge disturbances in countries’ internal security. The necessity of strengthened border protection (fencing, building of permanent obstacles, international border patrols, military support) raises the expenses of the Schengen area border states. Fortunately Poland is less exposed on the migration crisis threat but it does affect both Polish policy and the security (internal and external). In addition, the participation of Polish soldiers in the conflict in Syria and Iraq – even if symbolic – increases the threat of retaliatory terrorist attacks.
Continue reading Can we feel safe?