In recent years, the sense of security in the Baltic States has become more and more marked by the aggressive political and military actions of the Russian Federation.
This process has been visible since 2008 (the Georgian-Ossetian war) and its intensification took place after the outbreak of the conflict in eastern Ukraine in 2014 – or, plainly speaking – the war in Donbas Area. More frequent reports of Russian intelligence activities in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, border provocations (eg. airspace violations), cyber attacks, and finally propaganda activities on the very edge of the information war (or perhaps on the other side?) intensified the perceptible threat level.
On top of that, specialists are sure “who has the knife and who is the lamb”. Professional analysis of Western think tanks – such as Rand Corporation – concerning the huge disparities between the military capabilities of the Baltic States and the Russian Federation and the possibility of Russian occupation of most of the territories of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia within 60 hours since the outbreak of war do not leave illusions about the outcome of a potential clash (or at least its initial phase). Equally professional made visions of the future conflict, even if being a political fiction – like the BBC’s quasi-documentary – warm up the atmosphere.